Counting Cards

Counting cards in blackjack is one of the easiest ways to win at gambling or to play a winning game.

The Hi-Lo System

First let me just give you a broad simplified overview of what counting cards actually is. The most popular and widely used system is called the Hi-Lo System. As each card is dealt from the shoe, you count it as +1, -1, or neutral. The tag values are 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are +1. T, J, Q, K, and A are -1. 7, 8, and 9 are neutral (0). Then, once the count gets high, meaning the odds have shifted in your favor, you raise your bet.

Pretty simple huh? Before we get into the details of exactly how to go about counting cards, let me first explain why it works.

Blackjack is not a symmetrical game. The dealer has one big advantage: you have to go first. That means that if you bust, the dealer doesn't even have to resolve their hand. They've already won. Or if you are playing with other players, and the dealer has to resolve their hand, and they also bust, well too bad you already lost.

However, the player has a number of advantages to balance this out. The 3:2 payout for a natural blackjack is pretty juicy. You can also split and double down, and choose when to hit and when to stay. Actually, it balances out pretty nicely.

Because of the asymmetries involved, certain cards favor the player, and certain cards favor the house. Specifically, low cards favor the house, and big cards favor the player. So we keep track of when high cards leave the shoe, and when the remaining shoe composition has a higher than normal amount of paint (10-value cards) and aces, we raise our bet.

Basic Strategy

The first step to becoming a master card counter is mastering the right basic strategy for the game you will be playing. There are different basic strategies because blackjack is played with a wide variety of different rules. Whether the dealer stays or hits on soft seventeen, or whether you are allowed to double after you split, or if you can surrender, all of these change what is basic strategy.

What is basic strategy anyway? Basic strategy is a rubric which shows you what the 'right decision' is for any dealer upcard and any player holding. Right decision meaning EV maximizing.

The above table is an abridged example of a basic strategy chart. It tells you when to hit, to stay, or to double down.

Mastering basic strategy is important and is just a process for rote learning. This step is very important. You may wish to use a basic strategy trainer, for example like the one found at Blackjack Trainer.

Keeping the Count

As previously mentioned, you count +1 for 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. And you count -1 for T, J, Q, K, or A. 7, 8, and 9 are neutral.

So as the cards are dealt out, you either increase or decrease the running count by +1. Or keep it the same if you have a neutral card.

A good starting drill is to simply flip through a single deck of cards one by one and try to keep count. Don't worry if it is hard at first, it will eventually become second nature. Leave the last card uncovered and try to predict its value. If the count is -1, then the last card will be a small card (+1) so that the final count ends exactly on 0.

Advanced Drills

• Count down in pairs: Once you master single cards, flip over two cards at a time. This helps you recognize patterns (like a Ten and a low card instantly canceling each other out as a 0).
• The Distraction Drill: Practice counting down a deck with the TV on loud, music playing, or while trying to hold a conversation. This simulates the noisy, distracting environment of a real casino.

Conversion to the True Count

With basic strategy and the ability to keep the count, you are already half way there. The next step is to convert the running count into the true count.

What matters is both the running count and how many decks are remaining. A running count of +15 is more significant with two decks remaining than with four, because the running count refers to the composition of the entire remaining shoe. A running count of +15 with four decks remaining is a true count of 3.75, whereas with 2 decks remaining it is a true count of 7.5.

In order to calculate the true count, you take the running count and divide by the number of decks remaining. So if the running count is +9, and there are three decks remaining, then the true count is +3.

You will use the true count, not the running count, for all your betting and playing decisions.

The Importance of Deck Penetration

A crucial factor related to the true count is Deck Penetration. This is how deeply the dealer deals into the shoe before shuffling. A game with poor penetration (e.g., the dealer cuts off 3 decks out of a 6-deck shoe) is virtually unbeatable because you rarely get deep enough into the shoe to see high true counts. Conversely, a game with excellent penetration (e.g., the dealer cuts off only 1 deck from a 6-deck shoe) allows the true count to fluctuate much more, offering highly profitable betting opportunities.

Deviating From Basic Strategy

In addition to altering our bet with the count, we can also deviate from basic strategy in certain situations. The following index plays are for a multideck, S17 game.

Betting

The last piece of the puzzle is knowing what to bet. A simple rule of thumb is to start with your max bet, and then work your way down. So your max bet is determined by your bankroll. An aggressive approach would be to max out at 1% of your bankroll. A conservative approach might be 0.5% or less for example:

You will note in the above table, all bets are even money amounts. This is not a coincidence! Such bets speed up the game, because it is very easy for the dealer to pay out 3:2 blackjack payments, surrenders, or other fractional amounts. Always bet using a single color as well.

Bankroll Management, Variance, and EV

While the betting table above outlines a spread, it's vital to understand Variance and Risk of Ruin (RoR). Blackjack variance is notoriously brutal. Even if you play perfectly, you will experience losing sessions, losing weeks, or even losing months. This is why having an adequately large, dedicated bankroll is necessary to survive the swings without going broke.

It's also important to have realistic expectations regarding your Expected Value (EV). Card counting is not a get-rich-quick scheme. A skilled card counter playing a standard shoe game typically has only a 1% to 1.5% edge over the house. Profit comes from grinding out this small mathematical advantage over hundreds of hours of play.

Casino Countermeasures and "Heat"

Card counting is not illegal, but casinos are private businesses and can ask you to leave (or "back you off") if they suspect you are counting. To avoid heat, successful counters use camouflage:

• Act like a tourist: Don't stare intensely at the discard tray or move your lips while counting. Engage in casual conversation with the dealer and other players.
• Keep sessions short: Limit your play at a single table or casino to 45-60 minutes to avoid drawing the attention of the pit boss.
• Wonging: Named after Stanford Wong, this technique involves "Wonging in" (joining a table only when the count is already high) and "Wonging out" (leaving the table when the count drops below zero). This maximizes your time playing with an advantage and minimizes time playing at a disadvantage.

Putting it all together.

Well that it is it, more or less. There are some topics we haven't really gotten into such as ENHC vs OBO vs Vegas style or the various types of surrender. And you will need to adjust your basic strategy decisions and index plays based on the house rules of the casino you are playing at. But the above steps are basically all you need to know in order to count cards. However there is a world of difference between reading this guide once or twice and actually counting cards at a high level. And the way you bridge that difference is through practice.