Counting Cards

Counting cards in blackjack is one of the easiest ways to win at gambling or to play a winning game.

First let me just give you a broad simplified overview of what counting cards actually is. As each card is dealt from the shoe, you count it as +1, -1, or neutral. The tag values are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are + 1 and T, J, Q, K, and A are -1. 7, 8, and 9 are neutral. Then, once the count gets high, and the odds are you in your favour, you raise your bet.

Pretty simple huh? Before we get into the details of exactly how to go about counting cards, let me first explain why it works.

Blackjack is not a symettrical game. The dealer has one big advantage. You have to go first. That means that if you bust, the dealer doesn't even have to resolve their hand. They've already won. Or if you are playing with other players, and the dealer has to resolve their hand, and they alos bust, well too bad you already lost.

However, the player has a number of advantages to balance this out. The 3:2 payout for blackjack is pretty juicy. You can also split and double down, and choose when to hit and when to stay. Actually, it balances out pretty nicely.

Because of the asymmetries involved, certain cards favour the player, and certain cards favour the house. Specifically, low cards favour the house, and big cards favour the player. So we keep track of when high cards and big cards leave the shoe, and when the shoe composition has a higher than normal amount of paint and aces, we raise our bet. EZ PZ.

Basic Strategy

The first step to becoming a master card counter is mastering the right basic strategy for the game you will be playing. There are different basic strategies because blackjack is played with a wide variety of different rules. Whether the dealer stays or hits on soft seventeen, or whether you are allowed to double after you split, or if you can surrender, all of these change what is basic strategy.

What is basic strategy anyway? Basic strategy is a rubric which shows you what the 'right decision' is for any dealer upcard and any player holding. Right decision meaning EV maximizing.

The above table is an abridged example of a basic strategy chart. It tells you when to hit, to stay, or to double down.

Mastering basic strategy is important and is just a process for rote learning. This step is very important. You may wish to use a basic strateger trainer, for example like the one found at Blackjack Trainer.

Keeping the Count

As previously mentioned, you count +1 for 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. And you count -1 for T, J, Q, K, or A. 7, 8, and 9 are neutral.

So as the cards are dealt out, you either increase or decrease the running count by +1. Or keep it the same if you have a neutral card.

A good drill is to simply flip through a deck of cards and try to keep count. Don't worry if it is hard at first, it will eventually become second nature. Leave the last card uncovered and try to predict its value. If the count is -1, then it will be a small card (+1) so that the count ends on 0. And vice versa.

Conversion to the True Count

With basic strategy and the ability to keep the count, you are already half way there. The next step is to convert the running count into the true count.

What matters is both the running count and how many decks are remaining. A running count of +15 is more significant with two decks remaining than with four, because the running count refers to the composition of the entire remaining shoe. A running count of +15 with four decks remaining is a true count of 3.75, whereas with 2 decks remaining it is a true count of 7.5.

In order to calculate the true count, you take the running count and divide by the number of decks remaining. So if the running count is +9, and there are three decks remaining, then the true count is +3.

You will use the true count, not the running count, for all your betting and playing decisions.

Deviating From Basic Strategy

In addition to altering our bet with the count, we can also deviate from basic strategy in certain situations. The following index plays are for a multideck, S17 game.

Betting

The last piece of the puzzle is knowing what to bet. A simple rule of thumb is to start with your max bet, and then work your way down. So your max bet is determined by your bankroll. An aggressive approach would be to max out at 1% of your bankroll. A conservative approach might be 0.5% or less for example:

You will note in the above table, all bets are even money amounts. This is not a coincidence! Such bets speed up the game, because it is very easy for the dealer to pay out 3:2 blackjack payments, surrenders, or other fractional amounts. Always bet using a single color as well.

Putting it all together.

Well that it is it, more or less. There are some topics we haven't really gotten into such as ENHC vs OBO vs Vegas style or the various types of surrender. And you will need to adjust your basic strategy decisions and index plays based on the house rules of the casino you are playing at. But the above steps are basically all you need to know in order to count cards. However there is a world of difference between reading this guide once or twice and actually counting cards at a high level. And the way you bridge that difference is through practice.